More Savings Ahead: The Potential of Future Appliance Standards

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The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is legally required to periodically consider updates to existing energy and water efficiency standards for residential appliances and commercial and industrial equipment. The appliance standards program, which covers approximately 60 product categories, has been saving households and businesses money on utility bills for decades; existing standards are saving the average U.S. household hundreds of dollars each year on utility bills. The Biden administration updated about two dozen standards, which will add to these savings; these recently finalized standards will save a typical household more than $100 on average each year over the next two decades. However, due to technological advances, opportunities for large cost savings through still-stronger standards remain. 

This report estimates the potential savings from the next round of updated standards for 49 product categories (28 residential and 21 commercial and industrial). We assumed final rule dates ranging from 2025–2033, depending on the product category, and associated compliance dates ranging from 2027–2036. For eight products for which DOE has issued a proposed rule that has yet to be finalized, we evaluated savings from new standards equivalent to those in each of the proposed rules. For the remaining products, we generally evaluated standard levels equivalent to the maximum technologically feasible (or “max-tech”) level identified by DOE in the most recent rulemaking. We note that we are not endorsing these specific standard levels, but rather are instead quantifying the potential savings that are possible given current technology. By law, DOE can adopt only economically justified standards, considering impacts on both consumers and manufacturers. Utility bill savings from improved standards outweigh any increase in purchase price. Altogether, we found that updated standards could reduce a typical household’s utility bills by an average of nearly $150 annually and collectively save businesses $13.8 billion in annual operating costs over two decades (2030–2050). 

Energy efficiency, including appliance standards, has played an important role in reducing both total energy use and peak electricity demand. For about two decades, U.S. electricity consumption remained relatively constant despite population growth. But in 2024, electricity consumption increased by 2%, and it is forecasted to continue to grow. While some increase in electricity demand was expected by grid forecasters from building and vehicle electrification, more rapid growth from the proliferation of energy-intensive data centers and increased U.S. manufacturing is now anticipated, challenging grid operators and utilities nationwide. As figure ES-1 shows, updated efficiency standards could reduce annual electricity consumption by 204 and 338 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2040 and 2050, respectively—equivalent to 4.7% and 7.2% of projected U.S. electricity consumption in those years. 

Figure ES-1. Projected U.S. electricity consumption (solid line), and potential electricity savings from updated standards. Source: ASAP tabulations based off of EIA data.

Peak demand—which drives grid infrastructure investments—can also be lowered through efficiency standards. We estimate that updated standards could cut peak demand by 32 GW in 2040 and 50 GW in 2050, which are equivalent to 4.3% and 6.7% of current peak demand, respectively. For comparison, in 2021, the total nameplate capacity of natural gas peaker plants was 190 GW. These peak demand savings could help improve overall affordability for ratepayers.

At the same time, updated standards would reduce air pollution that harms human health. We estimate that updated standards could reduce nitrogen oxides (NO_X) emissions by about 25,900 tons in 2040 and 44,700 tons in 2050, and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions by 10,200 tons in 2040 and 14,000 tons in 2050. Updated standards could also provide large greenhouse gas reductions—we estimate potential cumulative reductions in CO₂ emissions of 933 million metric tons (MMT) through 2050. The potential annual CO₂ emissions reductions in 2040 and 2050 of 48 MMT and 78 MMT, respectively, are equivalent to the annual emissions of 126 and 205 typical natural gas power plants. In addition, we estimate total cumulative water savings through 2050 of 4.8 trillion gallons. 

During the first Trump administration, DOE failed to develop and update any efficiency standards, which sacrificed savings for households and businesses. If the current administration chooses not to comply with their legal obligations to consider updates to existing efficiency standards, the administration would again be foregoing an opportunity to reduce costs. Additionally, any congressional or administrative effort to stymie DOE’s ability to update standards would similarly block these potential cost savings from being achieved by DOE under a current or future administration.