Near-Term Pathways to Reduce Emissions from Ethane Crackers

Low-cost U.S. shale gas gives U.S. producers of building-block chemicals a competitive advantage on both cost and carbon emissions intensity. Ethylene is one of the most versatile of these chemicals and is used to make products as diverse as packaging, pipes, antifreeze, and housewares. Overseas competitors, however, are chipping away at the advantages, and customers are also increasingly asking for products with a lower environmental footprint.

The global ethylene downcycle that has persisted since around 2020 has depressed margins and delayed both large capital investments and emissions reduction projects that are part of large projects. The Iran conflict involving the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global supply chains for olefins since late February 2026, and while this has improved margins for U.S. producers, capital investments are still paused due to large market uncertainties. If this capital investment downtime is used to develop and justify lower-footprint solutions and boost the market for low-carbon products, these solutions will be able to compete for capital when the market outlook improves and another wave of investment arrives. But additional work is needed to reduce costs, grow the emerging market for lower-footprint products, improve integration and infrastructure, and bolster business cases.

Multiple pathways are maturing to reduce emissions for the steam crackers that produce ethylene. This paper explores near-term opportunities (2–5 years) to demonstrate, validate, and improve the economics of these technologies. Announcements of recent commercial projects at scale give evidence of leading near-term solutions and the technologies pursued include hydrogen fuel switching, beneficial electrification of compressors, and emissions mitigation. Energy efficiency and integration are foundational to deploying these technologies, based on the announcements and our interviews with cracker operators and engineering companies. These solutions could combine to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions 85% or more along with efficiency and integration advances, per claims in project announcements. Efficiency, fuel switching, and compressor electrification could yield around 60% of those reductions, according to the analysis in this paper. Post-process emissions mitigation technologies such as carbon capture could further reduce emissions, albeit with additional cost and integration hurdles. While several projects have been paused due to economic conditions, their progress provides learnings for the development, demonstration, and future deployment of lower-footprint technologies.

Investment in demonstrations is particularly important for lowering implementation costs in the near term, improving competitiveness in the nascent market for low-carbon products, and gaining insights into integration efficiencies. This could hasten cracker CO₂ emission reductions, which is important considering the time value of emissions: CO₂ can persist in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, and every 5-year delay requires up to 13 times more reductions in the future.

The advances and impacts for ethane cracker technology deployment could contribute to longer-term sustainability improvements in the chemical industry, and that is the topic of other forums. The objective here is to spur a conversation about how to improve the business case(s) for viable solutions so they can compete for capital in the industry’s next upcycle. Thought leaders at ethylene cracker operators, technology providers, state and local policymakers, NGOs, utilities, and investment institutions all have a role to play.