Executive Summary

This report documents the results of a study conducted by the American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy (ACEEE) for the Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE). The study's primary purpose is to analyze a range of technologies and practices, collectively referred to as "measures" for their potential as new national market transformation initiatives.

Approach

The following multi-step process was taken to assess potential market transformation targets. First, we developed a list of measures, focusing on technologies and practices suitable for full- scale market transformation programs at some point in the near term (i.e., during the 1998-2000 period). Second, we collected data, and updated or modified data collected for previous Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) and Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (the NW Alliance) studies to reflect new information and the national context. We also collected information on new measures that CEE requested we analyze. Third, with input from CEE staff and the Advisory Committee on this project, we developed and implemented a method for ranking and presenting comparative information on different measures. in addition, we prepared an electronic spreadsheet with the measure data to permit CEE and its members to develop revised and customized rankings.

Measure characterizations

Detailed measure characterizations are presented for each of the 53 measures selected for analysis. These characterizations include a one to two page write-up and a data sheet that documents the data and assumptions used in estimating key variables.

Ranking scheme

From the data collected on each measure, three factors were selected as our principal means for comparing, ranking, and presenting potential measures for new market transformation programs: (1) potential energy savings, (2) cost effectiveness; and (3) likelihood that a market transformation initiative will be successful. A variety of rankings were then performed.

Each measure was first ranked according to each of the three factors individually. Next weights were applied to the three factors and an overall ranking based on these weights performed. Weighting factors (40 percent for potential energy savings; 40 percent for likelihood of success; and 20 percent for cost of saved energy, i.e., the "basecase scenario") were chosen by ACEEE and CEE in consultation with the project Advisory Committee. For comparison, we conducted two sensitivity analyses on the basecase rankings. The first case, the "even-weighting scenario," weights each factor evenly (i.e., 33 percent each) and the second case, the "high LOS scenario," emphasizes likelihood of success over potential energy savings (i.e., likelihood of success is weighted at 50 percent and potential energy savings is weighted at 30 percent).

Results

The top 20 measures from the basecase ranking scheme, and the results of the sensitivity analysis are shown in Table E-l below. This basecase ranking includes 8 residential measures and 7 commercial measures; 13 of the measures are technologies and 2 are practices.

Table E-1 Summary of Rankings Under Alternative Weighting Schemes

	Savings Likelihood of Success Cost of Saved Energy	Basecase 0.4 0.4 0.2	Even 0.33 0.33 0.33	High LOS 0.3 0.5 0.2
Commercial building retrocommissioning		1	1	2
High efficiency clothes washers		2	2	3
LED commercial/industrial exit signs		3	3	1
High efficiency electric water heating		4	4	4
Efficient standby power operation		5	6	9
High efficiency residential central a/c		6	8	6
Coin-op clothes washers		7	5	5
High efficiency gas storage water heaters		8	10	7
T8 lamps/electronic ballasts		9	7	8
Low energy/water dishwashers		10	9	12
LED traffic signals (red only)		11	11	10
Duct sealing		12	13	13
Commercial packaged a/c-Tier 1		13	15	11
Screw-in compact fluorescent lamps		14	12	14
Furnace & boiler installation & maintenance		15	18	18
Efficient new homes		16	38	28
New commercial buildings-integrated design		17	30	25
High efficiency pkgd. refrigeration equip.		18	17	16
Residential efficient windows		19	26	24
Residential a/c installation & maintenance		20	21	23

Of measures that consistently rank in the top 20 under alternative weighting scenarios, several are currently addressed by national initiatives. The EPA and DOE ENERGY STAR® programs, for example, promote high efficiency clothes washers and dishwashers, efficient residential air conditioning equipment, LED exit signs, products with efficient standby operation (through EPA's new TV/VCR program), and efficient new homes. Similarly, CEE promotes high efficiency clothes washers, dishwashers, coin-operated washing machines, and high efficiency residential and commercial packaged air conditioning equipment. CEE is also investigating the opportunities for developing a national initiative to address LED traffic signals. In addition to these national initiatives, a number of other measures are being addressed by regional initiatives, such as the NW Alliance's activities to promote residential duct sealing, compact fluorescent lamps, efficient windows, and commercial building integrated design, and the Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnership's (NEEP) work to promote compact fluorescent lamps and commercial air conditioning maintenance and installation. (Note: Please refer to individual measure writeups for more information on each of these existing and emerging efforts).

Recommendations for Action

Despite ongoing efforts to promote many of the top-ranked measures, a number of opportunities exist for accelerating their market acceptance:

• Many of national initiatives, for example, could be expanded. Current activities on dishwashers, home electronics, coin-operated clothes washers and efficient new homes are limited and could benefit from increased promotion at the regional, state, and local levels, involving utilities, state energy offices, and other local and regional partners.

• Those measures now being promoted regionally could from promotion in other regions and coordination on the national level. CEE is now working to improve coordination among regional compact fluorescent lamp programs and is exploring similar opportunities, and the newly-formed New Buildings Institute is working with utilities and state governments to improve coordination on new buildings initiatives.

• Some of the measures, including high efficiency gas and electric water heaters and T8 lamps and electronic ballasts, currently have substantial market share and DOE is now considering standards for these products. Efficiency organizations can influence this process by providing comments on analyses and draft rules and urging DOE to speedily complete the rulemaking processes.

• A few of the measures already have considerable momentum in the market, such as LED exit signs and traffic signals. In the former case it may be time to complete the transformation process by tightening building code provisions for exit sign power use. In the latter case, additional efforts are warranted to educate potential users about red signals and to further develop and demonstrate green and three-color LED signals.

• Finally, some highly ranked measures are currently the focus of little activity and can benefit from more attention. Among these commercial building recommissioning, furnace and boiler installation and maintenance practices, and packaged commercial refrigeration equipment. Many organizations are exploring the issues around commissioning existing buildings, but to date concrete programs have yet to emerge. On furnace and boiler installation practices, CEE has commissioned a literature review on this topic and is considering whether to do further work in this area. And for commercial refrigeration equipment, EPA is developing an ENERGY STAR® program for vending machines and is considering similar programs for some other packaged refrigeration products.

In all of these areas, current efforts are limited and should be expanded; and as program ideas are developed, there will be a need to adapt and implement the basic designs at the regional and local levels.

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200 pp., 1998, $25.00, U981

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