Energy Efficiency Potential Assessments

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Energy Efficiency Potential Assessments

Accurate assessments of energy efficiency potential are critical for developing sound energy efficiency programs and policies. Quality analysis and data are essential to developing sound policy. ACEEE is hosting a dialog among the analytical and policy community on this topic. Please click here to learn more about the Statement on Energy Information for the 21st Century.

ACEEE has been involved with assessments of energy use and savings potential for many years. These include both national assessments and state and regional assessments:

National Energy Efficiency Assessments
State and Regional Assessments
Other Reports

National Energy Efficiency Assessments

As part of a recent analysis of the potential impacts of energy efficiency on Natural Gas Markets, we undertook a review of eleven studies that have been conducted on the technical, economic, and/or achievable potential for energy efficiency in the U.S. These studies cover many regions (e.g. California, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Washington, the Southwest and the U.S. as a whole), sectors (residential, commercial, and sometimes industrial), energy types (electricity and/or natural gas) and time frames (e.g., 5, 10 and 20 years).

A new paper presented at the 2004 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings summarizes the results of these different studies and then compares and contrasts them to tease out overarching findings. The 11 recent studies examined in this paper show that a very substantial technical, economic and achievable energy efficiency potential remains available in the U.S. Across all sectors, these studies show a median technical potential of 33% for electricity and 40% for gas, and median economic potentials for electricity and gas of 20% and 22% respectively. The median achievable potential is 24% for electricity (an average of 1.2% per year) and 9% for gas (an average of 0.5% per year). We compare the achievable potential findings to recent-year actual savings from portfolios of electric and natural gas efficiency programs in leading states and find substantial consistency. The paper concludes with several recommendations for future energy efficiency potential work.

"The Technical, Economic and Achievable Potential for Energy-Efficiency in the U.S. - A Meta-Analysis of Recent Studies" (August 2004) by Steven Nadel, Anna Shipley and R. Neal Elliott. (387KB)

ACEEE has also prepared a number of important analyses of energy use and efficiency potential at the national level:

In addition, we have prepared a number of more targeted analyses focusing on a particular topic or technology, including:

Among the important studies prepared by others are:

Clean Energy Future, released in 2000 by the Interlaboratory Working Group made up of five U.S. DOE national laboratories

State and Regional Assessments

Robust state-level estimates of energy use and savings potential are critical for development of state and regional programs and policies. Significant variation exists among states with respect to their current and projected energy use. These variations result from a number of factors including regional climate variation and the mixture of economic activity.

Most recently, ACEEE has been working in Florida and Texas to propose specific energy efficiency, renewable energy, and demand response policies that can address growing energy consumption and peak demand in these two states which are among the fastest growing in the country. The findings from these studies indicate that growth in consumption can be met with efficiency and onsite renewables over the next 15 years, and growing peak demand can be met with these policies combined with expanded demand response.

State and regional energy efficiency policies can also have important impacts on energy markets and emissions of greenhouse gases, as can be see from these two recent reports:

With the recent increase in state and regional activities, many funded by system benefit charges, ACEEE has been involved with projects analyzing energy use and savings potential in eight states.

Electric and Gas Efficiency Potential in Oregon

The Energy Trust of Oregon has completed electricity and natural gas resource assessments. ACEEE participated in the industrial analysis portion of the electricity study:

Energy Efficiency and Conservation Measure Resource Assessment for the Residential, Commercial, Industrial and Agricultural Sectors (January 2003)

Natural Gas Efficiency and Conservation Measure Resource Assessment (August 2003)

NYSERDA Electric Efficiency and Renewable Energy Potential

In addition, ACEEE participated in the team that did an electric efficiency and renewable energy potential assessment for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA):

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Resource Development Potential in New York State - Final Report, Volume One: Summary Report (August 2003)

SWEEP Report

The first of the analyses that ACEEE contributed to has recently been released in a new report from SWEEP, entitled The New Mother Lode: The Potential for More Efficient Electricity Use in the Southwest. This report discusses electricity use and savings potential in the Southwest region, consisting of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. The region is the fastest growing in the country in terms of both population and electricity demand. Electricity demand in this region rose 3.7 percent per year on average during 1990-2000, compared to 2.5 percent per year for the nation as a whole. Due to high electricity demand growth, many new power plants and associated transmission and distribution (T&D) facilities are under construction or proposed in the region. High electricity demand growth causes a number of problems including:

placing upward pressure on electricity and natural gas prices,
causing power plant and transmission line siting controversies,
increasing the risk of power outages and diminished electrical reliability,
increasing air pollution and other adverse environmental impacts,
increasing water consumption, and
increasing the "greenhouse gas" emissions that are contributing to global warming.

This study prepared by SWEEP with analytical support from ACEEE and the Tellus Institute analyzes the technical and economic potential for improving the efficiency of electricity use in the Southwest region, assesses the impacts of these savings, and proposes policies.

Energy Savings Potential in 2020 by Sector and State

Region

AZ

CO

NV

NM

UT

WY

Commercial Sector

Savings Potential

%

37.3

37.2

37.0

36.6

38.7

37.5

39.8

Residential Sector

Savings Potential

%

26.3

29.9

22.1

21.

31.0

23.9

24.9

Industrial Sector

Savings Potential

%

32.6

33.3

28.8

33.8

36.3

29.1

37.3

All Sectors

Savings Potential

%

32.8

33.9

31.2

31.1

35.8

31.2

35.5

Other Reports

Several of ACEEE's earlier state and regional analysis reports are still available:

In addition, other state and regional studies are available on the web:

California and the Energy Crisis: Diagnosis and Cure prepared for the Energy Foundation [2002]

For more information contact:
Steven Nadel, Executive Director

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